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Episodes
Narratives is a project exploring stories about progress. Narratives is hosted by Will Jarvis. For more content, transcripts, and show notes, check out narrativespodcast.com
Episodes
Tuesday Jul 30, 2024
Tuesday Jul 30, 2024
### Podcast Title
"Navigating Complex Systems: From Software Engineering to Real Estate"
### Summary
In this episode of Narratives, host William Jarvis is joined by co-host Lars Doucet and special guest Patrick McKenzie. Patrick shares his journey from moving to Japan due to a misleading Wall Street Journal article to becoming a notable figure in the software engineering world, eventually working at Stripe and now advising and writing about financial infrastructure.
The conversation delves into the state of the software engineering job market, the impact of large language models, and why Patrick believes the market is healthier than many think. Patrick discusses his method for arriving at contrarian viewpoints and the importance of revisiting past predictions to learn from them.
Patrick also shares fascinating insights into how his father, a real estate acquisition specialist, taught him to "read the street" and understand the factors influencing business locations, particularly for companies like Walgreens. This leads to a broader discussion on the complexities of regulatory environments and how to navigate them, especially in highly regulated industries like property tax assessment and healthcare.
The episode wraps up with advice for startups working in regulated industries, emphasizing the need to balance understanding the regulatory landscape while maintaining the drive to create value. Patrick's experience with the vaccinateCA initiative during the COVID-19 pandemic showcases how quickly adding state capacity can lead to significant improvements in public services.
### Podcast Notes
**Introduction:**
- Host: William Jarvis
- Co-host: Lars Doucet
- Guest: Patrick McKenzie
**Key Topics Covered:**
1. **Patrick’s Background:**
- Moving to Japan based on a Wall Street Journal article.
- Professional journey: Japanese salaryman, startup experience, joining Stripe, and current advisory and newsletter work.
2. **State of the Software Engineering Market:**
- Misconceptions from the past and present.
- Impact of large language models on the job market.
- The ongoing need for skilled engineers despite technological advancements.
3. **Methodology for Arriving at Contrarian Views:**
- Importance of reviewing past predictions.
- Learning from mistakes and maintaining an evidence-based approach.
4. **Real Estate Insights from Patrick’s Father:**
- Understanding why certain locations are chosen for businesses.
- The difference between destination and non-destination locations.
- Sociological and logistical factors influencing real estate decisions.
5. **Navigating Regulatory Environments:**
- Balancing empathy and effectiveness in highly regulated industries.
- Avoiding regulatory capture while striving for positive change.
- Lessons from working at Stripe and the vaccinateCA initiative.
6. **Advice for Startups in Regulated Industries:**
- Understanding the incentive structures and constraints of participants.
- Maintaining focus on creating value.
- The importance of adding state capacity and being adaptable.
**Conclusion:**
- Patrick’s contact information and where to find his work.
**Sponsor Acknowledgment:**
- Special thanks to Bismarck Analysis for their support.
- Mention of the Bismarck Brief newsletter.
This episode provides valuable insights into the software engineering market, real estate dynamics, and practical advice for navigating regulatory environments, making it a must-listen for anyone interested in these fields.
Monday Jul 10, 2023
Monday Jul 10, 2023
In this episode, we're joined by Molly Mielke to talk about agency. How to cultivate it, curate it and nurture it.
Images
Monday Jun 26, 2023
Monday Jun 26, 2023
Malcolm’s background. (0:05)
The problem of population collapse. (2:00)
Demographics is destiny and gender equality. (8:17)
How far along are we with artificial wombs? (11:25)
The stock market is a safe place to store your assets. (16:05)
Fertility rates and their impact on asset prices. (18:56)
The collapse of fertility in China. (23:26)
Cultural thriving in the future. (26:02)
Where’s the white pill on this? (31:03)
The collapse of the Roman Empire. (34:03)
Tuesday Jun 13, 2023
Tuesday Jun 13, 2023
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Brent’s background. 0:01
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Introduction to assessment matters podcast.
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Brent's bio and big ideas for the future.
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How is the digitization of land records in the Us? 1:44
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In the United States, the 1850 system has been digitized.
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The challenge of standardizing the process.
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Lack of standards across state to state. 3:21
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Lack of standards across state to state and within states.
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Value structures using the cost method.
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What is the state of property rights in cadastral systems? 5:20
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The state of cadastral systems across the world.
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The downsides of having a title insurance.
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What is the big barrier to land rights? 7:55
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Securing land rights in the british colonies.
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Adoption of technology is key.
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Mapping the farc in Colombia. 9:52
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The farc colombia peace treaty and repatriation of 15 million properties.
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Fit for purpose mapping.
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Where are the low hanging fruit? 11:23
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The low-hanging fruit of real estate taxes.
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Taxation and real estate tax.
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Why people don’t like property taxes? 13:09
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Why Brent thinks property taxes are underrated.
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How Brent originally got into cadastral work.
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What are you most excited about in the next 20 years? 15:23
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Excited about the next 20 years for cadastre.
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Building a cadastral system in developing countries.
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Where to learn more about Cadastral. 17:30
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Where to learn more about Brent's work and Cadastral.
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Where to find more information about cadastral
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Monday May 29, 2023
Monday May 29, 2023
narratives - nathan final
Summary
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Nathan’s background. 0:05
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Introduction to the podcast and the guest.
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Nathan's bio and his interest in urbanism.
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Stumbling into the discourse of urbanism.
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How he first got interested in the topic.
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Nathan’s marketing background. 4:02
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Nathan talks about marketing and movement.
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Nathan shares his take on marketing.
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How to best navigate social media discourse? 6:15
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Observing various forms of discourse on social media.
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Cars vs other forms of transportation.
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The 15 minutes cities conspiracy theory going viral.
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How to win people over.
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Nathan’s first instinct when he first heard about this. 11:42
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The psychology of conspiracy theories and how they form.
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Nathan shares his thoughts on current EMP messaging and how to improve it.
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The challenge of explaining urbanism to the left.
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Dark money and deregulatory talk.
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Is there a conspiracy on twitter? 17:36
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Skepticism toward power, paranoia and lack of ability to work around it.
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Twitter is toxic.
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Lessons learned from twitter. 20:31
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Lessons learned from tiktok and how he manages his communications.
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Tiktock is a health sign.
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The benefits of being a youtuber on Twitter and tiktok.
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Making a statement for yourself.
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Contrarian rebelling on social media. 25:20
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Being an anti-group from a young age.
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The internet is full of people like you.
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The intellectual dark web and social media.
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How social media is like the urbanist movement.
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Emv vs urbanest in their bio.
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Freddy de boer, critical of vmb.
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The aesthetics and vibes of a movement. 31:55
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Reservations about joining a group, aesthetics, vibes and who's in the room.
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Deep blue texas.
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Defining the differences between left and right.
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How humans work, and why it matters.
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How do we interpret our political leanings? 36:19
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No party is free of guilt.
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Tribalism is any kind of group thing.
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AOC is a lightning rod of discourse.
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AOC and the left-right divide.
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Practical examples of the problem with framing and framing. 42:05
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The difference between a conservative and a conservative.
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Practical examples in activism.
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Single-family zoning and how it is framed.
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How conservatives react to single- family zoning.
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How to get people to care. 47:03
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Why most people don't care about politics.
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How to choose the right messaging.
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Reframing politics around culture and policy engagement.
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Taking a step back regularly to recalibrate.
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Advice to the young people. 52:28
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Ten good-faith, thoughtful arguments vs one or two bad-faith responses.
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Online friends vs real-life friends.
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Advice for a budding movement trying to change the world.
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Follow their passions.
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Where are your strengths? 56:59
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Everyone is passionate about something, even if it's something stupid.
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Not everybody can be joe rogan.
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The anti-podcaster meme, and why it's a bad thing.
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Bismarck analysis newsletter.
narratives - nathan final
Summary
-
Nathan’s background. 0:05
-
Introduction to the podcast and the guest.
-
Nathan's bio and his interest in urbanism.
-
Stumbling into the discourse of urbanism.
-
How he first got interested in the topic.
-
-
Nathan’s marketing background. 4:02
-
Nathan talks about marketing and movement.
-
Nathan shares his take on marketing.
-
-
How to best navigate social media discourse? 6:15
-
Observing various forms of discourse on social media.
-
Cars vs other forms of transportation.
-
The 15 minutes cities conspiracy theory going viral.
-
How to win people over.
-
-
Nathan’s first instinct when he first heard about this. 11:42
-
The psychology of conspiracy theories and how they form.
-
Nathan shares his thoughts on current EMP messaging and how to improve it.
-
The challenge of explaining urbanism to the left.
-
Dark money and deregulatory talk.
-
-
Is there a conspiracy on twitter? 17:36
-
Skepticism toward power, paranoia and lack of ability to work around it.
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Twitter is toxic.
-
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Lessons learned from twitter. 20:31
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Lessons learned from tiktok and how he manages his communications.
-
Tiktock is a health sign.
-
The benefits of being a youtuber on Twitter and tiktok.
-
Making a statement for yourself.
-
-
Contrarian rebelling on social media. 25:20
-
Being an anti-group from a young age.
-
The internet is full of people like you.
-
The intellectual dark web and social media.
-
How social media is like the urbanist movement.
-
Emv vs urbanest in their bio.
-
Freddy de boer, critical of vmb.
-
-
The aesthetics and vibes of a movement. 31:55
-
Reservations about joining a group, aesthetics, vibes and who's in the room.
-
Deep blue texas.
-
Defining the differences between left and right.
-
How humans work, and why it matters.
-
-
How do we interpret our political leanings? 36:19
-
No party is free of guilt.
-
Tribalism is any kind of group thing.
-
AOC is a lightning rod of discourse.
-
AOC and the left-right divide.
-
-
Practical examples of the problem with framing and framing. 42:05
-
The difference between a conservative and a conservative.
-
Practical examples in activism.
-
Single-family zoning and how it is framed.
-
How conservatives react to single- family zoning.
-
-
How to get people to care. 47:03
-
Why most people don't care about politics.
-
How to choose the right messaging.
-
Reframing politics around culture and policy engagement.
-
Taking a step back regularly to recalibrate.
-
-
Advice to the young people. 52:28
-
Ten good-faith, thoughtful arguments vs one or two bad-faith responses.
-
Online friends vs real-life friends.
-
Advice for a budding movement trying to change the world.
-
Follow their passions.
-
-
Where are your strengths? 56:59
-
Everyone is passionate about something, even if it's something stupid.
-
Not everybody can be joe rogan.
-
The anti-podcaster meme, and why it's a bad thing.
-
Bismarck analysis newsletter.
-
-
-
Summary
-
Nathan’s background. 0:05
-
Introduction to the podcast and the guest.
-
Nathan's bio and his interest in urbanism.
-
Stumbling into the discourse of urbanism.
-
How he first got interested in the topic.
-
-
Nathan’s marketing background. 4:02
-
Nathan talks about marketing and movement.
-
Nathan shares his take on marketing.
-
-
How to best navigate social media discourse? 6:15
-
Observing various forms of discourse on social media.
-
Cars vs other forms of transportation.
-
The 15 minutes cities conspiracy theory going viral.
-
How to win people over.
-
-
Nathan’s first instinct when he first heard about this. 11:42
-
The psychology of conspiracy theories and how they form.
-
Nathan shares his thoughts on current EMP messaging and how to improve it.
-
The challenge of explaining urbanism to the left.
-
Dark money and deregulatory talk.
-
-
Is there a conspiracy on twitter? 17:36
-
Skepticism toward power, paranoia and lack of ability to work around it.
-
Twitter is toxic.
-
-
Lessons learned from twitter. 20:31
-
Lessons learned from tiktok and how he manages his communications.
-
Tiktock is a health sign.
-
The benefits of being a youtuber on Twitter and tiktok.
-
Making a statement for yourself.
-
-
Contrarian rebelling on social media. 25:20
-
Being an anti-group from a young age.
-
The internet is full of people like you.
-
The intellectual dark web and social media.
-
How social media is like the urbanist movement.
-
Emv vs urbanest in their bio.
-
Freddy de boer, critical of vmb.
-
-
The aesthetics and vibes of a movement. 31:55
-
Reservations about joining a group, aesthetics, vibes and who's in the room.
-
Deep blue texas.
-
Defining the differences between left and right.
-
How humans work, and why it matters.
-
-
How do we interpret our political leanings? 36:19
-
No party is free of guilt.
-
Tribalism is any kind of group thing.
-
AOC is a lightning rod of discourse.
-
AOC and the left-right divide.
-
-
Practical examples of the problem with framing and framing. 42:05
-
The difference between a conservative and a conservative.
-
Practical examples in activism.
-
Single-family zoning and how it is framed.
-
How conservatives react to single- family zoning.
-
-
How to get people to care. 47:03
-
Why most people don't care about politics.
-
How to choose the right messaging.
-
Reframing politics around culture and policy engagement.
-
Taking a step back regularly to recalibrate.
-
-
Advice to the young people. 52:28
-
Ten good-faith, thoughtful arguments vs one or two bad-faith responses.
-
Online friends vs real-life friends.
-
Advice for a budding movement trying to change the world.
-
Follow their passions.
-
-
Where are your strengths? 56:59
-
Everyone is passionate about something, even if it's something stupid.
-
Not everybody can be joe rogan.
-
The anti-podcaster meme, and why it's a bad thing.
-
Bismarck analysis newsletter.
narratives - nathan final
Summary
-
Nathan’s background. 0:05
-
Introduction to the podcast and the guest.
-
Nathan's bio and his interest in urbanism.
-
Stumbling into the discourse of urbanism.
-
How he first got interested in the topic.
-
-
Nathan’s marketing background. 4:02
-
Nathan talks about marketing and movement.
-
Nathan shares his take on marketing.
-
-
How to best navigate social media discourse? 6:15
-
Observing various forms of discourse on social media.
-
Cars vs other forms of transportation.
-
The 15 minutes cities conspiracy theory going viral.
-
How to win people over.
-
-
Nathan’s first instinct when he first heard about this. 11:42
-
The psychology of conspiracy theories and how they form.
-
Nathan shares his thoughts on current EMP messaging and how to improve it.
-
The challenge of explaining urbanism to the left.
-
Dark money and deregulatory talk.
-
-
Is there a conspiracy on twitter? 17:36
-
Skepticism toward power, paranoia and lack of ability to work around it.
-
Twitter is toxic.
-
-
Lessons learned from twitter. 20:31
-
Lessons learned from tiktok and how he manages his communications.
-
Tiktock is a health sign.
-
The benefits of being a youtuber on Twitter and tiktok.
-
Making a statement for yourself.
-
-
Contrarian rebelling on social media. 25:20
-
Being an anti-group from a young age.
-
The internet is full of people like you.
-
The intellectual dark web and social media.
-
How social media is like the urbanist movement.
-
Emv vs urbanest in their bio.
-
Freddy de boer, critical of vmb.
-
-
The aesthetics and vibes of a movement. 31:55
-
Reservations about joining a group, aesthetics, vibes and who's in the room.
-
Deep blue texas.
-
Defining the differences between left and right.
-
How humans work, and why it matters.
-
-
How do we interpret our political leanings? 36:19
-
No party is free of guilt.
-
Tribalism is any kind of group thing.
-
AOC is a lightning rod of discourse.
-
AOC and the left-right divide.
-
-
Practical examples of the problem with framing and framing. 42:05
-
The difference between a conservative and a conservative.
-
Practical examples in activism.
-
Single-family zoning and how it is framed.
-
How conservatives react to single- family zoning.
-
-
How to get people to care. 47:03
-
Why most people don't care about politics.
-
How to choose the right messaging.
-
Reframing politics around culture and policy engagement.
-
Taking a step back regularly to recalibrate.
-
-
Advice to the young people. 52:28
-
Ten good-faith, thoughtful arguments vs one or two bad-faith responses.
-
Online friends vs real-life friends.
-
Advice for a budding movement trying to change the world.
-
Follow their passions.
-
-
Where are your strengths? 56:59
-
Everyone is passionate about something, even if it's something stupid.
-
Not everybody can be joe rogan.
-
The anti-podcaster meme, and why it's a bad thing.
-
Bismarck analysis newsletter.
-
-
-
Monday May 15, 2023
Monday May 15, 2023
Dan Katz - ESG and Asset Management.
Dan’s background. (0:05)
How well do you rate the performance of the federal government? (4:14)
What was the impact of the pandemic on the Us? (8:17)
The problem with Esg and how Esg has changed. (14:53)
Active vs passive investing. (18:48)
The shift from active investing to indexing. (25:35)
The problem with Esg. (29:27)
The Usa etf and how it works. (34:17)
The importance of supply chain and geopolitical risk. (38:29)
Geopolitical risks and opportunities. (43:26)
Industrial policy and nearshoring. (48:10)
Monday May 08, 2023
Monday May 01, 2023
Monday May 01, 2023
In this episode, I'm joined by Neil Chilson to talk about:
Impact of imposed legibility.
4:48
The problem with platform monopolies and network effects.
10:51
Content moderation on social media.
17:02
What challenges will Elon face when taking twitter private?
21:44
The truth about government policy and how individuals can help.
27:19
The power of the wave and the beach analogy.
32:29
Monday Apr 24, 2023
Monday Apr 24, 2023
In this episode we're joined by UC Boulder philosophy professor Alex Priou, and Russ Green to discuss Technology, Progress and History.
Monday Apr 17, 2023
Monday Apr 17, 2023
In this episode we're joined by writer Ed West to discuss the decline of the UK, the future of Europe, and where we go from here. This episode was cohosted by Lars Doucet.